Moldova is preparing for crucial elections on October 20, 2024, where voters will not only select a president but also decide on a referendum regarding the country’s European Union (EU) membership bid. The current president, Maia Sandu, who is pro-European, is running for re-election. A positive outcome for EU accession would lead to the government formally incorporating this goal into the constitution, solidifying Moldova’s alignment with Europe.
The current president, Maia Sandu
However, Moldova is facing significant challenges as it finds itself caught in an information war between pro-European sentiments and pro-Russian influences. European officials have raised concerns that the Kremlin’s tactics, including disinformation campaigns and vote-buying, may compromise the electoral process’s integrity. Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, stated that Russia is actively working to disrupt the electoral landscape in Moldova.
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Recent reports indicate that around €14 million has been channeled from Russia to approximately 130,000 Moldovans, aimed at incentivizing them to vote against EU membership. Ilan Shor, a pro-Russian oligarch, has also openly offered financial rewards for votes opposing EU integration. Overall, Moldova’s authorities estimate that Russia has spent as much as €100 million to interfere with the election, deploying coordinated disinformation tactics to manipulate public opinion and suppress voter turnout.
Surveys show that public support for EU membership is around 60%, but the threshold for a valid referendum requires a turnout of at least 33%. Consequently, Russian-backed efforts have focused on demobilizing potential voters to achieve this goal, which could be more attainable for Russia than outright swaying the vote against EU accession.
Despite the challenges, Siegfried MureÈ™an, head of the European Parliament’s Moldovan delegation, expressed confidence in Moldova’s ability to conduct free and fair elections, citing the EU’s strong backing for the country. He emphasized that Moldovan authorities possess the capability to organize transparent elections, and any attempts at interference would likely be detected.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has altered Moldova’s political landscape, leading to a distancing of parties previously advocating for closer ties with Russia. In Brussels, there is now a recognition of the necessity of EU enlargement as a geopolitical priority. Historically, the presence of Russian troops in Transnistria, a separatist region bordering Moldova, complicated the country’s EU aspirations. However, there is a growing consensus among EU officials that Moldova’s accession is feasible and vital for the region’s stability.
Russia’s influence is further manifested in its efforts to destabilize Moldova through regions such as Gagauzia, where pro-Russian sentiments have been promoted. Recently, the EU imposed sanctions on the Gagauz leader for promoting separatism. Despite these challenges, MureÈ™an stated that Moldova’s EU integration would benefit all citizens, regardless of their region.
The European Union is poised to invest significantly in Moldova’s integration process, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposing a €1.8 billion financing package to support key reforms necessary for EU membership. This package represents the largest funding allocation to Moldova since it gained independence.
As the elections approach, Russia is employing a wide range of hybrid warfare techniques to destabilize Moldova, particularly through disinformation campaigns targeting its citizens. For instance, recent operations have involved spreading false claims about EU membership and attempting to discredit President Sandu. A recent report detailed an operation aimed at Moldovan civil servants, which involved distributing counterfeit documents that falsely claimed the EU would impose certain social policies if Moldova joined.
The Kremlin’s tactics often exploit societal divisions, aiming to sow distrust in the EU and delegitimize pro-European leaders. There are reports of misinformation campaigns claiming that certain minority groups would gain undue influence in the government if Moldova were to integrate with the EU. Additionally, false narratives regarding immigration policies have also circulated.
Moldova has historically faced hybrid attacks designed to bring the country back under Russian influence, particularly amid crises exacerbated by Russia’s actions. Protests fueled by the now-outlawed pro-Russian Șor party have previously placed pressure on Sandu’s government, with revelations that protesters were financially incentivized to attend.
The upcoming election is particularly vulnerable to interference due to its timing. MureÈ™an noted that Russia has long sought to undermine Moldova’s modernization and reform processes, but its efforts have become increasingly ineffective in recent years as Moldova continues its European integration journey.
Sandu, who has made EU accession a central aspect of her presidency since her election in December 2020, currently leads in the polls with approximately 30% support. However, she may face a challenging electoral landscape, especially if the election proceeds to a second round, which could allow her opponent to rally anti-incumbent sentiments.
Moldova’s electoral process is marked by significant challenges posed by external influences, particularly from Russia. The upcoming elections and referendum on EU membership are crucial moments that will shape the country’s future and determine its trajectory toward integration with Europe.
