The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has seen a significant shift in momentum in 2024, with Russia accelerating its territorial gains along the front lines. Recent U.S. decisions, including approving anti-personnel mines and long-range missile use by Ukraine, coincide with these developments. This article explores the latest data, strategic moves, and implications for both sides.
Russia’s Accelerated Advances in 2024
According to data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia has seized approximately 2,700 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2024—nearly six times the 465 square kilometers it captured in 2023. These gains underscore a change in Russia’s operational dynamics, particularly in the eastern Donbas region, where the military is targeting key Ukrainian logistical hubs.
Strategic Focus: Kupiansk and Kurakhove
Russia’s recent focus on Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region and Kurakhove in Donetsk highlights its tactical priorities. Kupiansk, a city liberated by Ukraine in 2022, is under renewed pressure as Russian forces attempt to breach its northeastern outskirts. Verified footage from mid-November shows Russian armored convoys attempting to advance toward a critical bridge near the city, reflecting how stretched Ukraine’s defenses have become.
Meanwhile, in Kurakhove, Russia has concentrated resources to encircle Ukrainian defenders. Since retaking Vuhledar in October, a strategic high ground overlooking key supply lines, Russia has intensified its offensive on Kurakhove from multiple directions. Analysts suggest this “pincer movement” strategy aims to slowly wear down Ukrainian defenses.
The Kursk Incursion: Tactical Brilliance or Strategic Misstep?
In August, Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, gaining control of several border communities. While initially viewed as a bold move to disrupt Russian operations, the offensive has faltered. Ukrainian forces have lost nearly half of the territory they initially seized, with Russian counterattacks reclaiming approximately 593 square kilometers since October.
Experts like Dr. Marina Miron argue that while the incursion demonstrated Ukraine’s tactical ingenuity, it has been a strategic setback. By tying down Ukraine’s most experienced units and Western-supplied mechanized armor in Kursk, the operation inadvertently allowed Russia to focus on advancing elsewhere.
Heavy Costs for Both Sides
Despite Russia’s advances, its strategy has come at a steep cost. BBC analysis reveals that at least 78,329 Russian troops have been killed since the war began in February 2022, with casualties in late 2024 exceeding those from the same period in 2023. Russia’s high losses stem from its “meat grinder” approach, which involves sending waves of recruits into battle to exhaust Ukrainian defenses.
Ukraine, on the other hand, faces challenges in sustaining its defenses. Analysts suggest its forces are strategically withdrawing in the east to preserve manpower and resources rather than risking collapse.
Biden’s New Arms Support to Ukraine
In response to the escalating conflict, President Joe Biden has approved the supply of anti-personnel mines and long-range missiles to Ukraine. This marks a significant shift in U.S. policy, allowing Ukraine to target Russian territory directly for the first time. On November 19, Ukraine deployed these missiles, signaling its intent to use such measures as leverage in future negotiations.
Political Implications: Trump’s Potential Presidency
The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. administration adds another layer of complexity. President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to end the war within 24 hours of taking office in January 2025, though he has not detailed his approach. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed concerns that Trump might cut military aid to force Kyiv into negotiations, warning such cuts could jeopardize Ukraine’s ability to survive the conflict.
Implications for Peace Negotiations
As the war grinds on, control over territory remains a critical factor in shaping any potential peace talks. Russia’s recent gains have bolstered its bargaining position. Dr. Miron notes that Moscow’s strategy is to solidify its hold on occupied areas to negotiate from a position of strength.
Ukraine, meanwhile, aims to retain some control in regions like Kursk as a potential bargaining chip. However, with resources stretched and key units tied down, the path to meaningful negotiations remains uncertain.
The Larger Picture
The ongoing conflict illustrates the high stakes for both sides. While Russia’s advances provide it with a stronger negotiating position, the cost in terms of lives and resources raises questions about the sustainability of its strategy. For Ukraine, the challenge lies in balancing immediate defensive needs with long-term strategic goals.
As the global community watches closely, the next few months could prove decisive in determining the trajectory of this war.
