On October 14, an Israeli airstrike killed 22 individuals in the northern Lebanese village of Aitou. While Israel claimed it targeted a Hezbollah position, the attack on this predominantly Christian community raises concerns about Israel’s strategy of extending its military campaign against Hezbollah to include broader areas, potentially destabilizing Lebanon further.
Michael Young, an expert on Lebanese affairs, suggested that Israel’s actions seem aimed at rendering the Shia community increasingly isolated and marginalized. Lebanon’s political landscape is characterized by a confessional system, where political power is distributed among various religious sects. This system has been historically manipulated by regional powers, exacerbating divisions among Lebanon’s different political and religious factions.
The communities in Lebanon are often segregated, a result of past violent conflicts that have led to significant displacement. The airstrike in Aitou is reminiscent of Lebanon’s 15-year civil war (1975-1990), which saw the nation embroiled in broader Israeli-Palestinian conflicts. The current hostilities, ostensibly targeting Hezbollah, threaten to reignite tensions throughout the country. Analysts interpret Israel’s pattern of attacks on areas housing displaced individuals as a strategy to collectively punish Hezbollah’s support base while psychologically tormenting the Lebanese populace, increasing the risk of sectarian violence.
Young explained that when Israel strikes in areas not dominated by Hezbollah, it generates fear and reluctance among residents to assist displaced Shia individuals, who may now be seen as potential targets. This creates a chilling effect, discouraging communities from welcoming refugees due to fears of Israeli reprisals.
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Maha Yahiya, a Lebanon specialist, described Israel’s bombing campaign as a form of psychological warfare. This approach sends a clear message to Hezbollah and the Shia community that they are at risk regardless of their location. Simultaneously, this strategy exacerbates sectarian tensions, leaving the broader Lebanese population in fear of their neighbors, who might be associated with the targeted groups.
Israeli political commentator Ori Goldberg noted that Israel appears to employ a similar strategy in Lebanon as it does in Gaza, with indiscriminate targeting of perceived military positions without regard for civilian presence. This approach has led to devastating attacks, including the bombing of municipal buildings in Nabatieh, which left significant casualties.
The attacks on predominantly non-Hezbollah areas may not hold strategic or military value, suggesting a deliberate intention to incite civil strife in Lebanon. Karim Emilie Bitar, a professor at Saint Joseph University in Beirut, indicated that these assaults serve as warnings, particularly to Christian communities, to avoid welcoming Shia refugees.
There is growing concern that if Israel continues its aggressive tactics, it will deepen existing sectarian divides and provoke serious civil unrest. In various Christian neighborhoods of Beirut, residents have begun monitoring visitors and conducting background checks on newcomers. In many instances, displaced individuals have faced evictions or restrictions on their ability to find housing, as local populations express fears about having unknown neighbors who may attract Israeli attacks.
This atmosphere of fear has fostered a divisive political climate in Lebanon, with communities increasingly resistant to accepting displaced individuals. Yahiya highlighted that Israel’s tactics are effectively creating a “politics of fear,” encouraging other groups to reject the displaced and exacerbating sectarian conflicts.
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The ongoing conflict has resulted in significant displacement, with over 600,000 people recorded as internally displaced in Lebanon since hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah began. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statements further clarify Israel’s intentions, as he warned Lebanese citizens of potential devastation akin to what Gaza has experienced if they do not take action against Hezbollah.
Israel’s military actions seem to signal a shift from a limited operation focused on southern Lebanon to a broader strategy aimed at reshaping the political landscape of the entire country. Observers are concerned that Israel lacks a credible endgame in its military endeavors. The proposed establishment of a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon appears unrealistic, and analysts suggest that Israel’s government is prepared to engage in prolonged conflict, similar to its approach in Gaza.
Goldberg emphasized that Israel’s objectives may include ongoing air superiority and continuous bombardment of targets. The lack of a clear endgame for Israel’s military actions raises significant concerns about the implications for Lebanon and the region’s stability.
Israel’s military strategy in Lebanon, particularly its recent attacks on non-Hezbollah areas, seems designed not only to target the group but also to incite civil strife and deepen sectarian divisions within the country. By creating an atmosphere of fear and suspicion among different religious communities, Israel is effectively challenging Lebanon’s fragile political fabric, risking a return to the violent sectarian conflicts that have historically plagued the nation.
