Azerbaijan’s Transport Minister, Rashad Nabiyev, stated that the Azerbaijan Airlines plane that crashed on December 25 was subjected to external interference. He reported that survivors from the flight heard three explosive sounds while the aircraft was flying over Grozny, in Russia’s Chechnya region. The Embraer 190 jet was ultimately redirected across the Caspian Sea to Kazakhstan, where it crashed, leading to the loss of 38 lives.
According to preliminary reports, the plane may have been targeted by Russian air defense systems, though the Kremlin has refrained from making any public statements on the matter. Dmitry Yadrov, head of Russia’s civil aviation agency, mentioned that the area near Grozny airport had been under a closed-skies protocol due to alleged attacks by Ukrainian drones on civilian infrastructure. Dense fog was also cited as a contributing factor to the chaotic situation around Grozny at the time of the incident.
Survivors and aviation experts suggest that the plane suffered significant damage caused by shrapnel from missile explosions rather than a direct hit. The transport minister indicated that investigators are working to determine the type of missile used in the attack. Flight attendant Zulfuqar Asadov recounted that the aircraft was struck multiple times, causing chaos among passengers and injuring several, including himself.
A veteran Azerbaijani pilot, Tahir Agaguliev, analyzed the damage and suggested that missile shrapnel impacted the plane’s hydraulics, compromising its controls. Despite severe damage, the pilots managed to save 29 lives by executing a partial landing, although they tragically lost their lives in the crash.
Azerbaijani authorities have not directly accused Russia of downing the plane but are reportedly expecting an acknowledgment or apology from Moscow. In a similar incident four years ago, Azerbaijan issued an apology and compensation when its forces mistakenly shot down a Russian helicopter. Figures close to the government in Baku now anticipate Russia to take similar steps.
Pro-government Azerbaijani officials have been more vocal, with one parliamentarian asserting that the plane was clearly struck in Russian airspace over Grozny. The delay in directing the aircraft to a closer emergency landing site and its diversion across the Caspian Sea, reportedly without GPS guidance, have raised questions about the sequence of events.
Azerbaijan Airlines attributed the crash to “external interference,” but further details have yet to emerge. Officials from Kazakhstan are collaborating with Azerbaijan to investigate the crash, while specialists from Embraer and Brazilian aviation authorities are also assisting. Baku has rejected proposals for an investigation led by the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), citing concerns over impartiality, and is advocating for an international inquiry instead.
In the wake of the crash, Azerbaijan Airlines and several other carriers have suspended flights to specific Russian cities for security reasons. Destinations affected include Grozny, Makhachkala, Sochi, and Volgograd. Additionally, airlines like Israel’s El Al and UAE’s Flydubai have suspended flights to certain Russian regions, citing safety concerns over the developments in Russian airspace.
The crash has heightened concerns about the safety of civilian air travel in the region. Ukrainian intelligence has alleged that Russian forces may have targeted the plane amid tensions in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. Furthermore, the incident has brought renewed attention to the vulnerabilities of civilian aircraft operating near conflict zones, amplifying calls for stricter international oversight.
Azerbaijan has maintained a cautious stance to avoid direct confrontation with Russia, though public and political pressures may force Baku to adopt a stronger position as the investigation progresses. The outcome of this inquiry is likely to shape future aviation protocols and geopolitical relations in the region.
