The Middle East is once again embroiled in conflict, with millions of people yearning for peace, stability, and safety. The past year of war has been one of the most devastating in recent history, underscoring the region’s deep political, strategic, and religious divisions that have made peace elusive. The ongoing conflict, particularly the recent Hamas offensive, is rooted in over a century of unresolved tensions, and it has dramatically reshaped the politics of the region. This war has spread fear, destruction, and death across borders, pulling the entire region toward a more dangerous and destructive future.
Hamas launched a surprise offensive against Israel, breaking through the border and causing Israel to experience one of its darkest days. Around 1,200 people, mainly Israeli civilians, were killed. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu conveyed to U.S. President Joe Biden the unprecedented savagery of the attacks, equating the horror to the worst moments in Israeli history since the Holocaust. Israel viewed the Hamas attack as an existential threat, leading to a strong retaliatory response. Since then, Israel’s bombardment of Gaza has resulted in catastrophic losses, with the Hamas-run health ministry reporting that nearly 42,000 Palestinians, primarily civilians, have been killed. Gaza now lies in ruins, and many Palestinians accuse Israel of committing genocide in its efforts to eliminate Hamas.
One year after the initial Hamas offensive, the situation in the Middle East has worsened, with the region teetering on the brink of an even more destructive conflict. The war has unraveled many longstanding assumptions and illusions. For Netanyahu, one of those illusions was the belief that the Palestinian issue could be managed without addressing their demands for self-determination. His approach to sidelining the Palestinian cause had provided some level of comfort to Israel’s Western allies, especially the U.S. and the UK, who held out hope that Israel could be persuaded to accept a Palestinian state to end the conflict. However, Netanyahu’s refusal to make concessions was rooted in a deep-seated distrust of Palestinians within Israel and his own ideological stance, which he had maintained throughout his political career. This stance ultimately undermined an ambitious American peace plan.
U.S. President Biden’s proposed peace plan, dubbed the “grand bargain,” aimed to secure full diplomatic recognition of Israel by Saudi Arabia, the most influential Islamic country, in exchange for allowing the creation of an independent Palestinian state. The Saudis, in return, were to receive a security pact with the U.S. to solidify their defense. However, the plan quickly fell apart. Netanyahu rejected it, asserting that Palestinian statehood would be a “huge reward” for Hamas, which Israel views as a terrorist organization. Members of Netanyahu’s government, including ultra-nationalist Bezalel Smotrich, echoed these sentiments, stating that granting Palestinians statehood would pose an existential threat to Israel.
On the other side of the conflict, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar had his own ambitions and miscalculations. Sinwar’s secretive plans to attack Israel on October 7, 2023, caught not only the Israeli military by surprise but also some of his own allies. Diplomatic sources suggest that Sinwar may not have even informed Hamas’s exiled political leadership in Qatar about the details of the offensive due to concerns about their notoriously poor security protocols. Despite the scale of the attack, Sinwar’s expectation that Iran and its broader “axis of resistance” would fully engage in a war to cripple Israel did not materialize.
Iran, while supporting Hamas, has been cautious in escalating the war. As Israel responded with a ground invasion of Gaza and U.S. President Biden moved American military assets closer to Israel, Iran signaled that it did not want to risk a wider war. The country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon, took limited action by launching rocket attacks on Israel’s northern border. While the targets were mostly military, Israel evacuated more than 60,000 people from the area. Hezbollah’s restraint, despite its formidable military capabilities and missile arsenal provided by Iran, highlighted Iran’s reluctance to push for a full-scale regional war.
However, Israel refused to tolerate the ongoing rocket attacks from Hezbollah, leading to a massive Israeli offensive against Lebanon. In a surprise move, Israel remotely detonated booby-trapped communication devices used by Hezbollah, crippling its communications network and killing key Hezbollah leaders. This was followed by one of the most intense bombing campaigns in modern warfare, which resulted in the deaths of approximately 600 Lebanese people, including many civilians, on the first day. The offensive culminated in a massive airstrike on Hezbollah’s stronghold in southern Beirut, killing Nasrallah and much of Hezbollah’s top leadership.
The death of Nasrallah marked a significant blow to Iran’s strategy of maintaining an “axis of resistance,” a network of allies and proxies in the region that had been a key element of its defense strategy. Israel’s offensive broke out of the limited border war with Hezbollah and escalated into a broader conflict. Although the goal of forcing Hezbollah to ceasefire and retreat from the border was not entirely successful, Israel’s aggressive strategy dealt a serious blow to Iran’s regional ambitions.
Despite this, Iran remained undeterred. The country’s leadership, particularly the Revolutionary Guards, appeared to have concluded that their reluctance to engage in a wider war was emboldening Israel to push harder. In late September, Iran decided to hit back, launching ballistic missile attacks on Israel on October 1, 2024. This marked a significant escalation in the conflict, signaling that Iran was willing to risk a broader confrontation to protect its interests in the region.
As the war continues to escalate, the future of the Middle East remains uncertain. What began as a devastating conflict between Hamas and Israel has now drawn in multiple regional powers, each with its own strategic goals and calculations. The death of illusions over the past year has led to a more dangerous and unpredictable situation, with the region on the edge of an even larger and more destructive war. Peace, once a distant dream, now seems even further out of reach as the cycles of violence and retribution continue to spiral.
The tragic events of October 7th in Kfar Aza, a kibbutz near the Gaza border, remain a poignant reminder of the deep and enduring trauma of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Kfar Aza, once a peaceful community of modest homes, gardens, and open spaces, was one of the first targets in Hamas’s attack on that day. Sixty-two people were killed, and 19 others were taken as hostages into Gaza. Despite the passage of time, the psychological wounds are still raw, with the remaining residents struggling to come to terms with their loss.
Zohar Shpak, one of the survivors, recalls the horrifying events and now lives amidst the ruins of homes, each one a memorial to the lives lost. Photographs of those killed adorn the walls of their former houses, including a young couple who lived just next to Zohar. The emotional scars for the surviving residents run deep. Zohar describes the trauma as ongoing, still feeling like they are at war rather than healing from it. The physical space, too, is stuck in time—buildings left as they were, with memorials marking the homes of the deceased.
For many in Kfar Aza, their politics before the attack were tied to peace and co-existence with Palestinians. Zohar himself, like many of his neighbors, believed in a peaceful resolution that would involve Palestinian independence. However, after the attack, his trust in Palestinians has eroded. Despite this loss of faith, he still yearns for peace and the hope of one day visiting Gaza’s beaches again, though he no longer believes such a dream is realistic.
Hamas leaders, such as Khalil al-Hayya, have defended the attacks on October 7th, despite overwhelming evidence that civilians were targeted. They justify their actions as necessary to draw attention to the Palestinian cause on the world stage, a stance that many find deeply troubling, given the scale of civilian deaths. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed vengeance, framing the war as an existential struggle for the survival of the Jewish people, echoing historical traumas like the Holocaust and the pogroms against Jews in Europe.
The Israeli response to the attack has been forceful. Two days after October 7th, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant ordered a “complete siege” of Gaza, aiming to cut off all supplies of electricity, food, and fuel to the region. Israel’s defense rhetoric has been equally unrelenting, referring to their enemies as “human animals” and justifying the siege as a necessary act of war. This approach has led to a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, with millions of Palestinians struggling to survive amidst bombings and displacement.
The humanitarian situation in Gaza has worsened considerably over the past year. Gaza’s health ministry claims nearly 42,000 Palestinians have been killed since the start of the war, and vast swathes of the territory have been reduced to rubble. Satellite imagery shows more than 58% of buildings have been damaged or destroyed. Displacement has also been a significant issue, with over 80% of Gaza’s population being forced to move multiple times. A particularly poignant example is Insaf Hassan Ali, a middle-class mother of two who, like millions of other Gazans, lost her home and livelihood. Forced to live in a tent in southern Gaza, her family now faces not only the threat of bombings but also hunger, disease, and poor sanitation.
For the Israeli government, Hamas’s attacks on October 7th represent more than just a breach of national security. They symbolize a much deeper existential threat, a recurrence of past atrocities. Israelis are haunted by the idea that their state, which was founded as a refuge from centuries of persecution, is no longer capable of protecting them from such horrors. For Palestinians, particularly those living in Gaza, the war represents yet another chapter in a long history of displacement and loss. Many Palestinians see Israel’s actions as an attempt to impose a second Nakba—a catastrophe that would displace them from their homeland once again.
The international community has voiced concerns over both sides’ conduct in the conflict. Humanitarian organizations have condemned Israel’s siege of Gaza, calling it a violation of international humanitarian law. Hamas, too, has been criticized for its treatment of Israeli civilians, with many accusing the group of using human shields to protect its military infrastructure. Both sides deny violating international law, with Hamas claiming it targeted only Israeli military personnel and Israel insisting that its warnings to Palestinian civilians are sufficient to avoid responsibility for civilian casualties.
The war has drawn in other regional actors, complicating the conflict further. Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and other groups have escalated their involvement, creating a dangerous situation that threatens to engulf the wider Middle East. Israel’s ongoing war with Hezbollah in Lebanon has strained its resources, and its retaliation for an Iranian missile strike on October 1st is expected to be severe. With the United States supplying weapons and diplomatic support to Israel, there is a growing fear that the conflict could spiral into a broader regional war, dragging in other nations like Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Despite the devastation, there are some in Israel who believe that the current moment represents a rare opportunity to reshape the Middle East. They argue that Israel’s enemies, including Hezbollah and Iran, are vulnerable and that a decisive military victory could bring about a lasting peace. However, others warn that this kind of thinking is dangerous. The invasion of Iraq in 2003, which was also framed as an opportunity to reshape the Middle East, ended in disaster and intensified the very extremism it was supposed to eliminate.
For now, the prospect of peace seems distant. Netanyahu remains committed to a military victory over Hamas, though critics accuse him of putting his political survival ahead of the lives of Israelis, including those still held hostage by Hamas. Meanwhile, in Gaza, people like Insaf Hassan Ali and her son Anas are left to endure the unbearable consequences of war, struggling to survive in a landscape that has been transformed into a nightmare.
The future remains uncertain. With the U.S. elections approaching and a possible change in leadership in Washington, the international dynamics of the conflict could shift. But for the people on the ground—both Israelis and Palestinians—the focus remains on survival. Both sides are locked in a cycle of violence and mistrust, unable to break free from the patterns of the past. Whether a ceasefire can be negotiated, or if the conflict will continue to escalate, remains to be seen. But for now, the trauma and destruction of October 7th have left deep scars that will take years, if not generations, to heal.
