Nine Congressional Sleeper Races to Watch on Election Night
As the 2024 presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump captures national attention, the control of Congress is equally at stake. The outcomes of various congressional contests could shift the balance of power in both the House and Senate, profoundly influencing the agenda of the next president. While the spotlight is on the presidential candidates, several Senate and House races are generating considerable buzz and may yield unexpected results on Election Night, which is set for November 5.
These so-called “sleeper races” are contests where one party seems favored, yet the dynamics on the ground suggest a more competitive environment. A mix of factors, including voter turnout, candidate popularity, and local issues, could tip these races in surprising directions. Below, we delve into nine pivotal congressional races to monitor closely as the election approaches.
Texas Senate Race: Ted Cruz’s Fight to Retain Control
In the highly competitive Texas Senate race, incumbent Republican Ted Cruz is facing off against Democratic Rep. Colin Allred. This election is particularly crucial for the Democrats, who require a remarkable turn of events to maintain their Senate majority. Allred, leveraging a campaign that characterizes Cruz as a “do-nothing extremist,” is presenting a formidable challenge.
Cruz, well aware of his precarious position, has cast Allred as too liberal for the state. He focuses on contentious issues such as transgender rights and energy policies, portraying Allred’s platform as out of step with Texas values. Despite Cruz’s strong incumbency in a traditionally Republican state, polling indicates that the race is closer than expected, with some surveys showing Cruz’s lead within the margin of error.
The stakes are high for Cruz, who underperformed in his previous 2018 Senate race, narrowly defeating former Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke by less than three percentage points. His campaign is now seeking increased financial support from conservative donors to counter Allred’s momentum.
Nebraska Senate Race: The Rise of Dan Osborn
In Nebraska, a race that was initially off the radar has gained significant attention due to the independent candidacy of Dan Osborn. A mechanic, union leader, and Navy veteran, Osborn has tapped into a populist sentiment that resonates with many voters. His campaign targets incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer, presenting her as a career politician out of touch with Nebraska’s needs.
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Osborn’s advertising strategy has struck a chord, with messages that criticize the Senate as being filled with “millionaires controlled by billionaires.” Polls show a mixed picture, with some indicating Osborn leading, while others show Fischer ahead. The battle for this seat has become fiercely contested, with the Republican Party pouring resources into the race to protect Fischer’s position.
As both candidates vie for support, Osborn has committed to remaining independent if elected, which complicates the narrative for Republicans concerned about losing control of the Senate.
Maryland Senate Race: Larry Hogan’s Challenge
In Maryland, Republican Larry Hogan is attempting to achieve what no Republican has done since 1980: win a Senate seat in a state dominated by Democrats. Hogan, a popular former governor, is capitalizing on his moderate reputation as he faces Angela Alsobrooks, the former Prince George’s County executive and a first-time federal candidate.
The political landscape in Maryland presents challenges for Hogan, especially given that Joe Biden won the state by a staggering 33 points in 2020. Alsobrooks is emphasizing Hogan’s past anti-abortion positions, aiming to remind voters of the implications of electing a Republican in a critical Senate race.
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While polls indicate that Hogan is performing better than Trump among Maryland voters, he still trails Alsobrooks. The race serves as a litmus test for Hogan’s ability to resonate with a largely Democratic electorate, and his performance could have implications for the broader Republican strategy in blue states.
Florida Senate Race: A Tough Fight Against Rick Scott
In Florida, where political tides are shifting, Democrats are hopeful about unseating incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Scott. Despite Florida’s growing inclination toward Trump and the Republican Party, Democrats are strategizing to capitalize on Scott’s polarizing stances.
Scott has a history of narrowly winning statewide races, including during both red and blue waves in the past decade. His opponent, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, has centered her campaign around reproductive rights, banking on the potential backlash against Scott’s hard-right views among moderates.
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Democratic hopes are buoyed by a ballot measure aimed at securing abortion access in the state constitution, which they believe could boost turnout. However, Scott remains a strong contender, and the race will likely reflect broader trends in Florida’s evolving political landscape.
Pennsylvania’s 10th District: A Serious Threat for Scott Perry
In Pennsylvania, Rep. Scott Perry, a member of the far-right Freedom Caucus, is facing a significant challenge from Democrat Janelle Stelson. This race encapsulates the potential for surprise outcomes, given Perry’s far-right alignment in a district that leans moderately Republican.
Stelson, a former TV news anchor with a strong local presence, has rapidly gained traction by raising substantial campaign funds. Her strategy includes portraying Perry as disconnected from the concerns of his constituents, compelling him to recalibrate some of his more controversial stances, such as proposed cuts to Social Security benefits.
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The Cook Political Report recently labeled this race as a “toss-up,” reflecting the heightened competitiveness and the potential for a Democratic upset in a traditionally Republican district.
Virginia’s 2nd District: An Early Indicator for Republican Performance
As polls close early in Virginia on Election Night, the 2nd District will be among the first to offer insights into Republican electoral strength. First-term Rep. Jen Kiggans faces a challenge from Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal in a district that has become increasingly Republican-friendly.
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Kiggans, who secured her seat by defeating a Democratic incumbent in 2022, must demonstrate that Republicans can maintain their foothold in districts that are crucial for preserving the House majority. A Democratic win in this district could signal a successful night for the party across the state and nation.
Wisconsin’s 3rd District: A Controversial Freshman on the Line
In Wisconsin, Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden has made headlines for his controversial behavior during his initial years in Congress. Although he is favored in a district that has historically leaned Republican, Democrats see an opportunity for an upset.
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Democrat Rebecca Cooke aims to present herself as a moderate alternative, seeking to attract voters who may be disillusioned with Van Orden’s conduct and rhetoric. The race in Wisconsin’s 3rd District is representative of broader tensions within the Republican Party and the potential for Democrats to make inroads in regions previously considered safe for GOP candidates.
Texas’ 34th District: Latino Voter Dynamics
The 34th District in Texas is emerging as a critical battleground for understanding shifts in Latino voter demographics. Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez is contending against Republican Mayra Flores, who has adopted far-right rhetoric and positioned herself as a voice against transgender rights.
Gonzalez is currently favored to win in this traditionally Democratic district, but changing attitudes among Latino voters could complicate the outcome. Some surveys indicate that Trump could be gaining ground with this demographic, making the race particularly interesting as it highlights the evolving political landscape among Latino voters.
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California’s 47th District: A Competitive Open Seat
Finally, California’s 47th District is shaping up to be a competitive race following the departure of two-term Rep. Katie Porter, who vacated the seat to run for Senate. The Republican candidate, Scott Baugh, aims to reclaim the district, which was once a Republican stronghold but has shifted toward Democratic leanings in recent years.
Baugh’s close loss to Porter in the 2022 election underscores the competitive nature of the district, where Democratic state Sen. Dave Min is also vying for the seat. Min’s campaign faced challenges early on, including a misdemeanor charge for drunk driving, but he remains a serious contender as Democrats aim to solidify their gains in California.
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These nine congressional races illustrate the complex landscape of the upcoming election, where established narratives can quickly shift in response to local issues and candidate dynamics. The interplay of factors such as voter turnout, party affiliation, and candidate appeal will significantly influence the outcome of these contests. As Election Night approaches, both parties are closely monitoring these sleeper races, knowing that unexpected results could redefine the balance of power in Congress and shape the future of American politics.
