Russian gas transit to the European Union via Ukraine has officially ceased, following the expiration of a five-year agreement between Ukraine’s gas transit operator Naftogaz and Russia’s Gazprom. This marks a significant shift in energy relations, as the EU moves toward energy independence from Russian supplies.
Ukraine’s leadership had previously warned against the continuation of transit, emphasizing that allowing Russian energy profits during ongoing conflict was unacceptable. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted this stance, urging the EU to prepare for this eventuality well in advance. In response, the European Commission stated that the continent’s gas infrastructure was resilient and adaptable, with sufficient capacity to manage the cessation of transit through Ukraine.
Although gas transit through Ukraine has ended, Russia retains the ability to supply gas to certain countries, including Hungary, Turkey, and Serbia, via the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea. The termination of the Ukrainian route signals the end of an era when Russian gas was a dominant and relatively cheap energy source for the EU.
Eastern EU countries, particularly Slovakia, are among the most affected. However, the European Commission has indicated that careful planning and alternative energy sources would mitigate the broader impact. Despite these measures, the strategic and symbolic consequences are significant for Europe, as the region continues to distance itself from Russian energy dependence.
Russia has suffered the loss of a crucial market, but its leadership, including President Vladimir Putin, asserts that EU nations will bear the greater burden. Prior to the conflict that began in 2022, Russia supplied approximately 40% of the EU’s gas. By 2023, this figure had plummeted to less than 10%. Nevertheless, several nations, including Slovakia and Austria, remain reliant on Russian gas for significant portions of their supply.
Austria’s energy authorities have expressed confidence in maintaining energy stability, citing diversified sources and ample reserves. However, Ukraine’s decision has sparked tensions, particularly with Slovakia, which has become the primary entry point for Russian gas into the EU. Slovakia has historically benefited from transit fees, facilitating gas shipments to Austria, Hungary, and Italy.
The strain between Ukraine and Slovakia escalated when Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico, following a meeting with Russian leadership, suggested halting electricity exports to Ukraine. In response, Zelensky criticized Fico for actions perceived as aligning with Russia’s interests, accusing him of undermining Ukraine’s stability.
Poland has pledged to assist Ukraine if Slovakia proceeds with cutting electricity exports. This support is critical, as Ukraine continues to face regular attacks on its energy infrastructure.
Moldova, although not an EU member, faces significant challenges due to its reliance on Russian gas. The country generates much of its electricity from Russian fueled power plants, which also supply the breakaway region of Transnistria. Moldovan authorities have implemented measures to stabilize energy supplies and encouraged citizens to conserve energy. A state of emergency in the energy sector remains in effect.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu has accused Russia of using energy as a tool for political leverage, with potential aims to destabilize the country ahead of its 2025 general election. Meanwhile, the Moldovan government has extended aid to Transnistria in efforts to address the region’s energy needs.
The end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine is a culmination of efforts by the EU to diversify its energy sources. Since the onset of the conflict, the bloc has increasingly relied on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from Qatar and the United States, as well as piped gas from Norway. In late 2024, the European Commission unveiled comprehensive plans to replace gas previously transported through Ukraine.
This development represents a pivotal moment in Europe’s energy landscape, reflecting both the geopolitical realities of the region and a collective push toward sustainable and independent energy solutions.
