US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is traveling to Brussels this week as European diplomats prepare for potential changes in US foreign policy under President-elect Donald Trump. As European leaders anticipate shifts in the US’s approach to NATO, Ukraine support, and trade tariffs, concerns are mounting across the continent. Trump’s previous presidency demonstrated a willingness to challenge traditional alliances, and many European officials are now bracing for a more unpredictable US stance in global affairs.
The timing of Blinken’s visit, just a week after the US election, underscores the urgent questions facing European leaders. French President Emmanuel Macron, reacting to Trump’s re-election, stressed the importance of a “united, stronger, and more sovereign Europe.” Macron’s comments reflect the growing view among European leaders that the continent must rely less on the US for its security and be prepared to strengthen its own defense capabilities.
Trump’s recent campaign statements have further fueled these anxieties. His public stance suggested that he might limit US support for Ukraine’s defense against Russia and apply pressure on European NATO allies to increase their defense budgets. Trump has repeatedly highlighted the need for NATO countries to contribute more, once recalling a conversation where he allegedly told a European leader that if they “don’t pay” their defense contributions, the US would not commit to their protection.
These comments have stirred concern among European diplomats, who fear that the return of Trump could mean a reduction in US engagement with NATO. Trump’s foreign policy approach during his previous term often focused on transactional relationships, and European leaders expect similar rhetoric to resume, particularly regarding defense spending obligations. A former US diplomat observed that although European countries increased defense contributions under pressure from Trump, there is apprehension that this will again become a contentious issue in the alliance.
Blinken’s Brussels visit also aims to address economic concerns, as Trump’s campaign floated the idea of a universal 10% tariff, which has already caused unease among European allies. With memories of Trump’s first term tariffs still fresh, European officials are wary of potential disruptions in transatlantic trade. The State Department has signaled that Blinken’s agenda will include discussions on NATO and the ongoing support for Ukraine. The Biden administration has been a strong proponent of supporting Ukraine with extensive aid packages, and as the possibility of Trump taking office looms, the current administration is working to solidify commitments to Ukraine’s defense.
The uncertainties surrounding Trump’s potential policies have European countries evaluating how they might appeal to the incoming administration. According to US diplomats, European leaders are preparing to showcase their contributions to NATO and highlight the positive impact of European businesses on the US economy. Some countries are also considering emphasizing their domestic policies on crime and immigration, which they believe may resonate with Trump’s administration. However, the specifics of how they plan to present these positions are still in development.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently spoke with Trump, expressing cautious optimism about maintaining strong ties with the US. Zelensky acknowledged the unpredictability surrounding Trump’s potential policies but stressed Ukraine’s hope for continued support. He emphasized that Ukraine would retain control over any peace negotiations with Russia, urging respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty in international discussions.
In response to these developments, European officials are increasingly focused on ensuring their countries are ready to bear a larger role in supporting Ukraine, especially if the US decreases its involvement. European governments are aware that if the US withdraws some support, they may face added pressure to sustain Ukraine financially and militarily, an effort that could strain their own economies, particularly if tariffs and other economic measures impact them.
The Biden administration’s diplomatic strategy has emphasized renewing and rebuilding alliances, and Blinken’s visit represents an opportunity to reinforce these ties before a potential shift in US foreign policy. However, European leaders are keenly aware of the fragile nature of these commitments, with one diplomat remarking, “We’re back, but for how long?” This statement reflects the shared concerns of European allies who value the US alliance but recognize the need to prepare for a more self-reliant future.
Source: CNN, November 12, 2024.
