European leaders are set to convene in Budapest for a high-profile meeting, with a primary focus on assessing the future of EU-US relations under a possible second presidency of Donald Trump. Hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, this gathering will include numerous European Union members and promises to address the implications of Trump’s recent electoral victory in the United States.
The potential return of Trump to the White House has sparked intense discussions across Europe, with leaders speculating on how his policies might impact trade, security, climate efforts, and other transatlantic concerns. During his previous term, Trump introduced protectionist trade measures and proposed across-the-board tariffs on imports into the U.S. If implemented again, such policies could have significant repercussions for Europe’s export-dependent economy. Trump’s stance toward China has also raised questions about how redirected Chinese trade might affect Europe, potentially flooding markets with low-cost goods and intensifying competition.
Central to the discussions in Budapest, however, will be concerns about Ukraine and NATO. Trump has previously threatened to reconsider or even reduce U.S. support to Ukraine, raising apprehensions about potential shifts in transatlantic security commitments. He has also hinted at urging Russia to take a more aggressive stance toward NATO members who do not meet certain spending benchmarks. Trump’s claim that he could broker a peace agreement in the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours has further fueled European fears that his terms may involve concessions unfavorable to Kyiv and beneficial to Moscow.
Throughout his earlier presidency, Trump applied a transactional approach to diplomacy, treating foreign policy as a negotiation centered on tangible benefits rather than long-held alliances and principles. This approach created friction with the EU, an entity that heavily depends on rules-based international systems to uphold its interests. One notable example of Trump’s disruptive influence was the weakened role of the World Trade Organization’s dispute resolution mechanisms.
To mitigate the impact of a potential Trump presidency, the European Commission recently established a task force dedicated to preparing the EU for various possible scenarios. European officials acknowledge that Trump’s unpredictable style poses a challenge, making it difficult for governments and institutions to devise long-term plans with certainty.
Among the agenda items, migration, economic stability, and defense will receive considerable attention during this two-day gathering, beginning with the European Political Community (EPC) session on Thursday morning. The EPC, formed in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, aims to foster dialogue among leaders from across Europe, including those from non-EU nations such as Ukraine, Moldova, the UK, Turkey, and several Balkan countries.
Though the exact number of attendees remains uncertain, the meeting traditionally draws over 40 leaders. Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, however, will be absent to manage the response to severe flooding in Valencia. Leaders from Ireland, Slovenia, and Iceland are also unlikely to attend.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is anticipated to participate, using the platform to appeal for additional support for Ukraine’s defense and financial needs, which he terms the “Victory Plan.” This request gains urgency in light of Trump’s election success, particularly given Orban’s critical stance on Ukraine’s military aid, which he describes as a “pro-war agenda.”
Following the EPC, Orban will host an exclusive dinner with EU leaders, focused primarily on the future of EU-US relations and the evolving situation in Georgia. Known for his admiration of Trump, Orban has suggested that Trump’s potential return to the White House could restore what he sees as a “golden age” in Hungarian-American relations and bolster Hungary’s sometimes contentious position within the EU. Orban has expressed optimism that a Trump administration could contribute to “repairing the economy” and advocate for peace over what he perceives as current “pro-war” policies.
European leaders are aware of the possibility that Orban may invite Trump to address the dinner virtually, a move that could create mixed reactions among attendees. Some EU leaders, such as Slovakia’s Robert Fico and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, might be receptive to this interaction, while others may view it as overly provocative.
The meeting will conclude on Friday with an informal summit dedicated to unveiling a “New European Competitiveness Deal.” This initiative, based on recommendations from a landmark report by Mario Draghi, will aim to strengthen the EU’s economic stance. Draghi, along with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, is expected to participate in the discussions, underscoring the bloc’s commitment to bolstering its economic resilience amid shifting global dynamics.
This summit in Budapest highlights the EU’s strategic recalibration in the face of possible changes in U.S. foreign policy, focusing on maintaining its stability, security, and economic strength amidst an increasingly complex global landscape.
