On November 3, 2024, Moldovan voters headed to the polls for a crucial presidential run-off election, with incumbent Maia Sandu facing off against challenger Alexandr Stoianoglo. This election is pivotal, not only for Moldova’s leadership but also for the country’s future direction—whether it leans toward the West or fosters closer ties with Russia.
In the first round of voting held on October 20, 2024, Maia Sandu emerged as the leading candidate, securing 42% of the votes but falling short of the necessary majority to claim victory outright. Alexandr Stoianoglo, who has expressed a preference for stronger relations with Russia, received 26% of the vote. Since neither candidate achieved the required 50% plus one vote, a second round of voting was mandated.
This election comes on the heels of a national referendum conducted simultaneously with the first round, where Moldovans voted on whether to enshrine the goal of EU membership into the country’s constitution. The referendum narrowly passed with a 50.35% approval rate, bolstered by votes from citizens residing abroad. However, the results were marred by serious allegations of a vote-buying scheme allegedly orchestrated by Ilan Shor, an oligarch who currently lives in exile in Russia.
Shor, who was convicted in absentia for fraud and money laundering in 2023, is accused of facilitating the transfer of approximately €35.8 million to over 130,000 voters through a Russian bank that is under international sanctions. He has denied these allegations. In the wake of these developments, Octavian Ticu, an outsider candidate in the presidential race, has expressed concerns about the integrity of the electoral process, asserting that the actions of those aligned with Shor could severely undermine the fairness of the elections.
In addition, voters from the breakaway region of Transnistria, which hosts a significant Russian military presence, were permitted to participate in the election. Ticu warned that any escalation from Russian troops towards the port city of Odesa could potentially jeopardize Moldova’s sovereignty.
In the autonomous region of Gagauzia, where support for the European Union is notably lower, law enforcement arrested a physician accused of pressuring elderly residents to vote for a specific candidate. Financial evidence connected to the Russian bank has reportedly surfaced in this case, highlighting the intersection of local elections and foreign influence.
Anti-corruption efforts have recently intensified in Moldova, resulting in substantial cash seizures and investigations into electoral bribery involving numerous state officials. These events have exposed significant deficiencies within Moldova’s judicial system, leading to increased skepticism among pro-Moscow factions regarding the legitimacy of the electoral process.
The former president Igor Dodon, who has strong ties to Russia, publicly rejected the referendum results and criticized Maia Sandu’s administration, asserting that her leadership has not adequately addressed the concerns of Moldovan citizens. Sandu has acknowledged the issues of electoral fraud and foreign interference that plagued both the presidential and referendum votes. She has warned that without necessary reforms to the judiciary, Moldova’s prospects for a stable future could be compromised.
As one of Europe’s most impoverished countries grappling with high inflation, experts suggest that many Moldovans might be vulnerable to corrupt electoral practices, accepting bribes for their votes in exchange for small sums. Observers of Moldovan politics caution that Moscow may ramp up its efforts to influence the outcome of the 2025 parliamentary elections, as support for the ruling pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity appears to be dwindling. Concerns are growing that this party may struggle to retain its majority in the 101-seat legislature, setting the stage for a highly contentious political landscape in the near future.
