Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is set for a significant meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, where they’ll address pressing issues such as European security, Ukraine, and the potential impact of a second Trump presidency on international relations. The meeting will take place ahead of Starmer’s participation in a ceremonial event at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, marking a significant moment as he is expected to be the first British Prime Minister to attend this ceremony since Winston Churchill in 1944. Alongside discussions of security, Starmer’s agenda will also touch upon trade and humanitarian concerns in Gaza.

With former U.S. President Donald Trump having recently won the presidential election, there is growing speculation over how his return to office might alter the U.S. stance on Ukraine, NATO, and defense policies. Trump has stated that he could end the Ukraine-Russia conflict in a single day but has avoided sharing specific details about how he would achieve this. His campaign associate Bryan Lanza hinted that Trump’s approach might involve enforcing a settlement on both sides, yet clarified that it wouldn’t necessarily entail reversing Russia’s annexation of Crimea. While Trump himself did not confirm these ideas, the ambiguity has raised questions in Europe about how the U.S. will engage with NATO and support Ukraine’s defense.

European Security, Ukraine, and NATO

Starmer and Macron are expected to underscore the importance of a united European stance on the Ukraine conflict, with both leaders highlighting that support for Ukraine is crucial to maintaining stability across the continent. The UK’s defense policies, along with NATO’s unified strategy, will likely be topics of conversation as Europe faces the ongoing Russian invasion. Downing Street has voiced the UK’s commitment to assisting Ukraine, with Starmer and Macron poised to affirm this shared stance in their discussions.

Russia’s escalation of attacks, including recent large-scale drone offensives between Ukraine and Russia, intensifies the urgency for these talks. Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported intercepting 84 Ukrainian drones over multiple regions, including near Moscow. This increase in hostilities underscores the ongoing volatility in the region and raises concerns about how NATO allies, including the U.S. under Trump’s future leadership, will continue to support Ukraine’s defense efforts.

Implications of Trump’s Return for NATO and Europe

Trump’s re-election brings a mix of uncertainty and concern for European leaders like Macron and Starmer. Trump has historically urged NATO members to increase their defense budgets and has criticized NATO allies for what he perceives as inadequate contributions to shared defense costs. During his campaign, Trump had indicated that he would allow countries facing aggression to address their own defense needs if they do not contribute enough to NATO, a stance that has worried European allies. Starmer and Macron are anticipated to explore how Europe might respond if Trump’s policies lead to a shift in U.S. defense commitments.

British Treasury Minister Darren Jones has hinted at plans to increase the UK’s defense spending from 2.3% to 2.5% of national income, aligning with NATO’s targets. However, he did not specify when the target would be reached, leaving questions about whether the commitment would be fulfilled by the next general election, expected by 2029. As European security concerns grow, increasing defense budgets may become a higher priority for European countries seeking to maintain a robust collective defense stance.

Trade Relations and Economic Concerns

Trade is also on the table for Starmer and Macron’s meeting, especially in light of Trump’s recent announcement that he would impose a 20% tariff on imports to the U.S. This proposal has raised alarms among European leaders, as it could disrupt trade relations and impact the European economy. Starmer is expected to raise concerns about how these tariffs could affect British and European businesses and to explore potential measures to mitigate their effects.

Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza

The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is another urgent issue for discussion, with both leaders likely to address how Europe might respond to the escalating situation. The ongoing hostilities in Gaza have led to a dire humanitarian situation, drawing international concern over the protection of civilians and access to essential resources. Starmer and Macron are expected to deliberate on how Europe can contribute to efforts that ensure aid reaches affected populations and advocate for measures to protect human rights in the region.

Commemorating Armistice Day and Remembering Sacrifices

The meeting coincides with Armistice Day, a significant moment for reflection on peace and remembrance. Both leaders will observe a two-minute silence at 11:00 GMT, marking the end of World War I on November 11, 1918. Starmer, who attended the UK’s annual National Service of Remembrance at the Cenotaph in London alongside King Charles and other dignitaries, will continue the tradition by paying respects in Paris.

The National Service of Remembrance brought together members of the Royal Family, including the Prince and Princess of Wales, in honoring those who have lost their lives in conflict. The solemn two minutes of silence led by King Charles serves as a reminder of the sacrifices made to preserve peace—a fitting tribute as Starmer and Macron prepare to discuss contemporary security issues and challenges.

Future of Europe-U.S. Relations

The Armistice Day meeting serves as a critical moment for Europe-U.S. relations as Starmer and Macron reflect on the historical alliance between Europe and America, which has faced renewed scrutiny in light of Trump’s statements on NATO and defense. The need for cooperation between European allies has rarely been more pronounced, with concerns about how Trump’s foreign policies could reshape NATO’s strategic priorities. Macron, who has previously urged for a more autonomous European defense policy, may use this meeting to reassert the importance of a strong, unified European response to global security challenges.

Both Macron and Starmer recognize that Trump’s approach to foreign policy, characterized by unpredictable shifts, could challenge Europe’s security frameworks, especially if U.S. support for NATO becomes conditional on increased financial commitments from European nations. These shifts could prompt Europe to enhance its own defense capabilities and reinforce alliances to counterbalance any potential reduction in U.S. involvement.

A Key Meeting for European Security

As Europe navigates a period of uncertainty with the potential return of Trump, Starmer and Macron’s discussions on European security, Ukraine, NATO, and trade will likely play a significant role in shaping Europe’s strategy moving forward. Their meeting symbolizes a shared commitment to addressing these global challenges collaboratively, with a focus on ensuring stability and security for Europe.

The ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier will remind both leaders of the enduring need for peace and unity, as they consider the impacts of contemporary conflicts and the future of transatlantic partnerships.