This article discusses how abortion-related ballot measures, particularly “Question 6” in Nevada, may influence voter turnout in upcoming elections. The measure aims to enshrine abortion rights in Nevada’s state constitution, and while it is not tied to a specific political party, it is seen as potentially beneficial for Democratic candidates like Shannon Bilbray Axelrod, who is running for Clark County commissioner.
Axelrod is confident that Question 6 could indirectly boost her campaign because voters will have to navigate through the entire ballot to vote on the amendment, increasing exposure to Democratic candidates. This kind of measure is a major question for Democratic candidates in battleground states, who hope to ride the momentum of abortion-related initiatives to electoral victories. However, it remains uncertain whether such initiatives will provide the boost the party is hoping for, as polling data suggests mixed results.
Ballot measures on abortion rights are set to appear this fall in 10 states, including battlegrounds like Arizona, Nevada, Montana, and Florida. Polls indicate that these measures are broadly popular, aligning with the success of similar initiatives after the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. However, despite the broad support for pro-abortion rights amendments, Democratic candidates who campaign on these platforms are not seeing equivalent polling numbers.
This discrepancy has raised questions about voter behavior, particularly how some voters seem to separate the issue of abortion from the candidates they select in other races. Pollster Mike Noble from Noble Predictive Insights noted that voters in states like Arizona and Nevada may support abortion rights measures while prioritizing other issues like the economy and immigration when choosing Senate or presidential candidates. This could mean that even though pro-abortion rights amendments may pass, Democratic candidates may not automatically benefit from that momentum.
In the 2022 and 2023 elections, abortion rights ballot measures succeeded in every state where they were on the ballot, even in traditionally conservative areas. However, some Republicans believe the impact of these measures will be reduced in a presidential election cycle, where voter turnout is higher and motivated more by the top races on the ballot. Montana GOP Senator Steve Daines, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, argued that while abortion initiatives might drive turnout in a midterm election, the effect could be less pronounced in a presidential election.
Despite these concerns, Democrats still see the abortion-related measures as a net positive. They believe the measures will bring out new voters, particularly those who may not have participated in previous elections, and that these voters are likely to support Democratic candidates who have made abortion rights central to their campaigns. Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist, pointed to the Nevada measure as something that could mobilize Democratic voters.
The coalition backing Question 6 in Nevada, called Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom, has launched an aggressive campaign to mobilize voters, planning to knock on 1 million doors and make 1.5 million phone calls by Election Day. Leaders of the effort, including Tova Yampolsky, the coalition’s campaign manager, and Jeri Burton from the Nevada chapter of the National Organization for Women, are optimistic that the measure will energize voters to support pro-choice candidates across the ballot.
Polling suggests that the Nevada amendment has strong support. A Fox News poll from August showed that 75% of registered voters were in favor of Question 6, including more than half of self-identified Republicans and over three-quarters of independents. However, the support for Democratic candidates in the state’s Senate and presidential races is not as overwhelming. Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen holds a lead over her Republican opponent Sam Brown, but the margin is smaller than the support for the abortion amendment. Meanwhile, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is nearly tied in Nevada.
In summary, while abortion-related ballot measures like Nevada’s Question 6 are popular and could drive turnout, the impact on Democratic candidates in key races remains uncertain. Voters appear to be separating their views on abortion rights from their preferences for candidates in other contests, and this dynamic could play a critical role in shaping the outcome of the election. Democrats hope that the energy generated by these measures will benefit their candidates, but Republicans believe that in a high-turnout presidential election, the effect of such initiatives will be less significant.
