Donald Trump’s campaign schedule in the final weeks of the 2024 election has included visits to states that are considered Democratic strongholds, deviating from the usual focus on swing states. Notably, the former president’s rally in California’s Coachella Valley and his planned stop at New York’s Madison Square Garden mark significant departures from the typical battleground strategy.
Republicans aren’t expecting to flip traditionally Democratic states like California and New York, where Trump lost by large margins in previous elections. However, Trump’s allies argue that these rallies serve multiple purposes, including raising funds, energizing Republican voters, and supporting down-ballot candidates in competitive House races. During a radio interview on “The John Kobylt Show” in Southern California, Trump controversially claimed that he could win California in a “landslide” if the state had an “honest election,” despite losing it by 29 points in 2020. He also criticized the state’s mail-in voting system.
Trump’s team views these rallies as opportunities to highlight issues that align with their campaign narrative, particularly focusing on the problems facing Democratic-led states. For instance, during a rally in Detroit, Trump warned that if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election, the entire country could end up resembling Detroit, a city that has faced significant economic challenges. In California, Trump plans to target Harris directly, emphasizing her time as attorney general and senator from the state, and attributing many of the state’s issues to Democratic leadership.
While Trump’s rallies may not significantly alter the electoral landscape in deep blue states, his campaign believes that the rallies can generate significant media attention and online engagement. A senior Trump adviser pointed out that in today’s media environment, the location of the rallies is less important than the spectacle and messaging they create. The adviser argued that the larger the rally, the more attention it garners from national media outlets, helping to spread Trump’s message beyond the state in which the rally is held.
In line with this strategy, Trump’s campaign has embraced unconventional media platforms. Instead of sticking to traditional swing-state events, they’ve had Trump appear on popular YouTube channels and podcasts to reach voters who don’t typically follow politics. This tactic mirrors Harris’ own strategy in recent weeks, as she too has appeared on podcasts and media platforms that appeal to targeted voter groups.
Trump’s rally in Coachella, however, hasn’t been without criticism. Local officials, including Coachella Mayor Steven Hernandez, condemned Trump’s visit. Hernandez stated that Trump’s rhetoric and policies, particularly his views on immigration, LGBTQ rights, and women’s issues, don’t reflect the values of the Coachella community. He also emphasized that Trump was not invited by local residents. Despite the backlash, Trump’s team remains confident that the rally will demonstrate his wide support across the country.
Trump’s approach to these rallies also serves another purpose: laying the groundwork to question the legitimacy of the election results if Harris wins. One of Trump’s recurring campaign themes is that he needs to win by such a large margin that it would be impossible to “rig” the election against him. His large rallies, particularly in traditionally Democratic states, feed into his narrative that he has widespread national support and that a loss would be suspicious.
In addition to California, Trump has set his sights on other Democratic states. He has a planned stop in Illinois, where he will attend an event co-sponsored by Bloomberg News and the Economic Club of Chicago. Trump has also held recent rallies in New York, including in the Bronx and Long Island, as part of his strategy to appeal to non-White male voters who have historically leaned Democratic. Trump’s upcoming rally at Madison Square Garden on October 27, just over a week before Election Day, is expected to be a major event. Although Trump has consistently lost New York by significant margins in both 2016 and 2020, he maintains that he has a chance of winning the state in 2024.
Trump’s determination to hold rallies in non-swing states reflects his belief that every voter deserves the chance to see him in person, even if their state isn’t critical to the electoral outcome. A person close to Trump mentioned that these events can be even more significant for supporters in blue states, as they may be the only opportunity for many to attend one of his rallies. This thinking is driving Trump’s focus on large-scale events in deep blue states where his campaign can still make a significant impact.
While Trump is confident in his performance in these states, not everyone agrees with his strategy. In Aurora, Colorado, Trump recently claimed that he was “very close” to winning the state, despite no evidence supporting this assertion. He used his time in Colorado to hammer Harris and other Democrats on issues such as immigration and crime. Trump has been amplifying false claims about Venezuelan gangs taking over Colorado, and during his rally, he criticized the state’s Democratic governor, Jared Polis, accusing him of being out of touch with the state’s crime problem. Trump pledged that if he wins the election, he will establish a federal program to fast-track the deportation of undocumented immigrants who are gang members, and he called for the death penalty for any migrant who kills an American citizen or law enforcement officer.
Colorado’s Democratic Senator Michael Bennet responded to Trump’s claims, accusing the former president of lying about crime in the state. However, from a political standpoint, Bennet said he was pleased to see Trump in Colorado, as he believes the former president has no chance of winning there. Bennet suggested that Trump’s rally in the state was ultimately a “waste of his time.”
Trump’s focus on blue states in the final stretch of the campaign stands in contrast to the traditional playbook of concentrating efforts on battleground states. His campaign sees these rallies as strategic moves that can energize his base, raise money, and create content that will spread across social media and other media platforms. Even if Trump doesn’t win the states where these rallies are held, his team believes the events are still valuable for shaping the broader national narrative and creating momentum.
Trump’s upcoming rally at Madison Square Garden, in particular, is expected to draw significant attention. The former president has long teased the idea of holding a rally at the iconic venue in his hometown of New York City. Despite his poor performance in the state in previous elections, Trump remains optimistic about his chances in 2024. His campaign argues that the large-scale rallies in blue states are a testament to his deep national support and will help energize Republicans in key House races.
As the election approaches, Trump’s rallies in blue states are part of a broader effort to appeal to voters outside the traditional battlegrounds, raise funds, and create media spectacles that reach voters across the country. Whether this strategy will pay off in the form of electoral gains remains to be seen, but Trump and his campaign are betting that these rallies will have a lasting impact on the final weeks of the race.
