Turkey’s Complex Role in the Ukraine-Russia Conflict.

From Ally to Mediator: How Russia's Invasion Has Changed Ukraine-Turkey  Relations - Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center | Carnegie Endowment for  International Peace

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has expressed concern about Turkey’s continued supply of military equipment to Ukraine during the ongoing conflict. Lavrov stated it was “surprising” that Turkey would provide weapons to Ukraine while also offering to mediate the situation. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Turkey, a NATO member, has tried to maintain a delicate balance between supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and upholding its ties with Russia. Although Ankara supplies Ukraine with weaponry like armed drones, it simultaneously opposes Western sanctions on Russia and has deepened its energy relations with Moscow.

Turkey had facilitated peace discussions between Ukraine and Russia shortly after the conflict began, and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has shown continued interest in mediating further. Ukraine, however, has held firm on avoiding direct peace talks with Russia. President Putin recently noted that Kyiv had declined two of Moscow’s past ceasefire proposals.

In an interview, Lavrov remarked that Turkish-supplied weapons were actively used by Ukrainian forces, resulting in casualties among both Russian military personnel and civilians. He pointed out the disconnect between Turkey’s stance on mediation and its ongoing support for Ukraine’s military.

Turkey has equipped Ukraine with various military assets, including Bayraktar TB2 drones, laser-guided missiles, heavy machine guns, electronic warfare tools, and armored vehicles. According to data from the Turkish Exporters Assembly, Turkey’s defense and aviation sector reached record exports of $5.5 billion in 2023, marking a 27.1% increase. Of this amount, 5.3% went to Ukraine, with similar shares sent to Poland and Azerbaijan, though the U.S. remained Turkey’s largest defense export partner.

The cooperative military ties between Turkey and Ukraine began in earnest in 2020 through a Military Framework Agreement, which included shared military intelligence, collaboration on defense projects, and mutual training initiatives. In early 2022, before the expanded conflict, Erdoğan and Ukrainian leaders signed multiple agreements, including a free trade deal. Turkey’s defense collaboration with Ukraine reflects Turkey’s desire to sustain a robust defense industry. Furthermore, some elements for Turkey’s defense projects are sourced from Ukraine, underscoring the value of this cooperation.

In recent months, Turkey has also worked to strengthen relations with Russia, especially through increased trade, tourism, and energy cooperation. Turkey’s interest in joining BRICS — the economic bloc initially comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and now expanded to include countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — highlights Turkey’s broader geopolitical strategy. Erdoğan and Putin recently met at a BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, where the leaders discussed potential arrangements in the Black Sea and the establishment of a grain corridor. Erdoğan reiterated Turkey’s eagerness to initiate peace discussions between Ukraine and Russia.

Military analysts report that Russian forces have intensified their advances in Ukraine, leveraging their advantage in manpower and arms. Meanwhile, Ukraine has continued to request additional assistance from its Western allies as it contends with Russia’s strengthened offensives.

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