As Election Day approaches, the upcoming government report detailing employment and unemployment statistics in the United States is expected to be particularly skewed. This report, set to be released just four days before the election, comes at a time when public perception of the economy has been pivotal in shaping voter opinions.
The October jobs report will reflect unusual distortions due to several factors, including the recent hurricanes and labor strikes, which have temporarily dampened job growth. Consequently, as politicians, Federal Reserve officials, and voters seek clarity on the economic situation, they will be presented with a muddled picture.
https://www.cpmrevenuegate.com/vt6hstxc?key=785582df3563a5011d6a42a72f53041eh
In recent months, allies of former President Donald Trump have been working to undermine confidence in the economy’s strength. Trump has consistently criticized the current Biden administration, attributing the rise in inflation—which peaked two years ago—to their policies. Despite signs of healthy job growth, low unemployment rates, and minimal layoffs, he has described the United States as a “failing nation” and proposed aggressive tariffs on imported goods, claiming these measures would restore millions of manufacturing jobs.
Typically, the monthly employment report serves to clarify the economic landscape. However, economists predict that the impacts of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, along with the Boeing machinists’ strike, will significantly reduce job growth for October by an estimated 60,000 to 100,000 jobs, most of which are likely to be temporary losses.
Preliminary estimates suggest that the report will indicate a modest addition of around 120,000 jobs for October, which, while lower than the previous month’s unexpected gain of 254,000 jobs, is still a solid figure. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at a low 4.1%.
https://www.cpmrevenuegate.com/vt6hstxc?key=785582df3563a5011d6a42a72f53041eh
When factoring in the adverse effects of the hurricanes and strikes, the job market remains surprisingly resilient, supported by robust consumer spending amid high interest rates set by the Federal Reserve. Jane Oates, a former Labor Department official during the Obama administration, remarked on the economy’s resilience, noting that consumer spending is a significant driving force.
Nevertheless, the report might overlook additional effects that are challenging to quantify. The Labor Department has indicated that the strike at Boeing and a smaller walkout by hotel workers could have reduced job growth by approximately 41,000 in October. However, it is unclear how many jobs may have been lost at Boeing’s suppliers due to reduced sales stemming from the strike.
On the other hand, the impact of the hurricanes may have been overstated. For a job to be classified as lost in the government’s data, a worker must be absent from work for an entire pay period—typically two weeks. While workers in North Carolina likely faced significant interruptions, Florida residents, accustomed to hurricanes, may not have experienced the same level of job disruption.
https://www.cpmrevenuegate.com/vt6hstxc?key=785582df3563a5011d6a42a72f53041eh
According to economists at UBS, major theme parks in Orlando—such as Walt Disney World, SeaWorld, and Universal Studios—were closed for only two days following Hurricane Milton. Additionally, in some regions, cleanup and rebuilding efforts following the hurricanes may have created new job opportunities.
This jobs report will be the final significant economic indicator before the Federal Reserve’s meeting on November 7, which is scheduled just two days after the election. Many economists anticipate that the Fed will lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point following a half-point cut in September.
If the upcoming report shows healthy job growth for October, excluding the disruptions from the hurricanes and strikes, it may lead to renewed skepticism from Republican political figures regarding the report’s credibility. Following the unexpected job growth reported in September, Florida Senator Marco Rubio labeled the report “fake,” echoing sentiments from Trump and his supporters.
https://www.cpmrevenuegate.com/vt6hstxc?key=785582df3563a5011d6a42a72f53041eh
Despite the political rhetoric, mainstream economists do not share such doubts. Other data points, including the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits—largely compiled by states—continue to suggest a robust job market. Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, expressed concern over the politicization of employment data, emphasizing the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as one of the most transparent government agencies.
Critics of the current administration, including Trump, have pointed to routine revisions of initial job estimates as evidence of data manipulation. In August, the BLS announced that it would be revising its total job estimates downwards by approximately 818,000, a reduction of about 0.5%. Trump seized upon this revision during a presidential debate, claiming it demonstrated “fraud” in employment data. Notably, similar downward revisions were made under his administration in 2019, totaling 514,000 jobs.
Trump’s running mate, Senator JD Vance, has attempted to undermine positive job reports by claiming that most job growth over the past year has benefitted immigrants. His assertion is based on the observation that the number of “foreign-born” individuals employed in the US increased by 1.2 million in September compared to the previous year, while the number of native-born workers declined by approximately 800,000.
https://www.cpmrevenuegate.com/vt6hstxc?key=785582df3563a5011d6a42a72f53041eh
However, the category of “foreign-born” includes a diverse range of individuals, from long-term residents who are now citizens to recent immigrants, both legal and undocumented. More significantly, the native-born workforce is shrinking due to a wave of retirements among older Americans. The proportion of Americans aged 65 and older has increased to 17.3%, up from 13.1% in 2010, as reported by the Census Bureau.
Current data also indicates that the unemployment rate among native-born Americans stands at 3.8%, lower than the jobless rate for foreign-born individuals, which is 4.2%.
